Looking back to the mid-1970s, there hasn’t been a period where the IC market declined for more than three quarters in a row.
As shown, there hasn’t been a three-quarter decline in the IC market since 4Q18-2Q19.
Moreover, the three-quarter decline in 2001 was the steepest on record, with three double-digit declines, which led to a 33% annual decline—the most severe annual IC market drop in history.
Given that the IC industry has never registered a four-quarter sequential IC market decline, expectations are high for a return to IC market growth beginning in 2Q23.
While the U.S. and China trade war is an unpredictable “wildcard” for near-term IC market growth scenarios, 2Q23 is currently expected to display modest 3% increase.
However, even with a rebound in IC sales beginning in 2Q23, the total IC market is forecast to drop by 6% next year.
Figure 1
